Probability is the science or study of things that might or might not happen. Although some people confuse probability with chance, they’re different. Chance can’t be predicted, and actions happen randomly. But with probability, you can predict events accurately. 

In this article, you’ll learn how to calculate probability and the likelihood that something will occur. So, keep on reading.

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Probability refers to how likely something is to happen. It’s a scientific representation of chance based on the study of relevant data. Of course, it’s impossible to predict some events with 100% accuracy, but probability gets you as close and as precise as possible.

What is Probability?

Probability is used in almost every industry as it facilitates decision-making. Professionals in banking, finance, marketing, and even medicine use probability to make better decisions and be more sure of their outcomes. 

Using a simple formula, you can calculate the probability of an event. There are several ways to calculate probability based on the nature of the event.

How to Calculate Probability

This method can be used when only one event can happen, and the event and its opposite can’t happen at the same time. Cases, where this rule applies, include rolling a die, a specific team winning a match, and the likelihood of an accident happening. 

In this case, we’re calculating the probability of mutually exclusive events. Here is how you do it.

Calculate all the possible events and their outcomes. For example, if you have a jar that contains marbles of different colors, the probability of picking a specific color is calculated when you identify all the outcomes. In this case, the number of possible outcomes corresponds to the total number of marbles. 

Divide the number of events by the number of total outcomes. For example, if you have 20 marbles; 8 are red, 5 are blue, and 7 are green, you can divide 8 by 20 to find the probability of picking a red marble. In this case, the probability is 8/20, 2/5, or 40%. 

Check your answer by adding up all the possible events. They should be equal to one. For example, if we calculate the likelihood of picking a blue marble, it will be 5/20 or 25%, and the probability of picking a green marble is 7/20 or 35%. The total of all events is 40 + 25 + 35 = 100% or 1. 

Find the probability of an impossible outcome with a zero. For example, there is 0% that you pick a yellow marble.

Finding the Probability of a Single Random Event

Calculating the probability of multiple random events is more difficult to calculate. In this case, you need to consider the effects of previous events before calculating the probability of multiple events. 

For example, if you’re calculating the probability of picking two marbles of the same jar, where the first one is red and the second one is blue, you will have to change the total number of outcomes. When you pick a red marble, the total number of marbles in the jar decreases, but the number of blue marbles stays the same. This is why you need to adjust the total number of possible outcomes. Here is how to do it.

Calculate the probability of picking a red marble. It is 8/20 or 40%. 

Calculate the probability of picking a blue marble. It is 5/19. 

Multiply the probabilities of each event by one another. The result is 10.53%

Calculating the Probability of Multiple Random Events

Without actually knowing it, we calculate and use probability in real life every single day. Using probability, you can determine the course of action or what will happen based on your decisions. 

With this knowledge, you can also accurately predict future events and their outcomes. Here are a few ways you can use your knowledge of probability to make better decisions. 

By checking the weather forecast app on your phone, you’re actually using the science of probability. This can help you if you’re planning an outdoor event, a picnic, or a boating trip. 

Meteorologists use specific techniques and tools to predict the weather based on the historical data they have of past periods where the temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind direction were similar. So when your weather app tells you that there’s a 70% chance that it will rain, it means that out of 100 days with the same parameters as today, it rained on 70 of them. 

Analysts and politicians use probability to predict the result of elections before counting votes. They use surveys, polls, and other tools to measure the popularity of a specific party or candidate and study similar past events to predict the likelihood of this candidate winning.

When you’re looking for an adequate insurance plan, you need to think about the probability of the issues you might encounter. So if you have health issues that run in the family, you’re better off choosing an insurance scheme that focuses on your health rather than your home or vehicle. 

For someone who works in a risky job, you need to focus on an insurance plan that protects you from the dangers of your profession. You can study the frequency of accidents happening in your sector and whether the insurance will be worthwhile or not. 

This is probably one of the most interesting examples of using probability in real life. Someone becomes a winner if all six numbers of the ticket match. However, this is very rare, so people buy more lottery tickets to maximize their chances.

How Can You Apply The Study of Probability in Real-Life?

Probability can be used in several industries and real-life situations because they help us understand events in a more scientific way. The science of calculating probability is accurate and easy to understand when you know the total number of events. 

There are several ways of calculating probability based on the nature of the event. The probability of single events is easier to calculate than the probability of multiple events, but the same rules are applied.

How to Calculate Probability

What is Probability?

How to Calculate Probability

Finding the Probability of a Single Random Event

Calculating the Probability of Multiple Random Events

How Can You Apply The Study of Probability in Real-Life?

Wrap Up

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